Summary The Talks That Could Have Ended the War in Ukraine | Foreign Affairs www.foreignaffairs.com
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Russia and Ukraine reached a framework for a settlement, including Ukraine's neutrality, EU membership, and security guarantees, but the talks ultimately broke down.
Slides
Slide Presentation (9 slides)
Key Points
- In the early days of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, intense diplomacy was underway between Moscow and Kyiv that could have resulted in a settlement just weeks after the war began
- The proposed treaty envisioned Ukraine becoming a permanently neutral, non-nuclear state, renouncing any intention to join military alliances or allow foreign military bases or troops on its soil
- The treaty would have facilitated Ukraine's path to EU membership, with Russia agreeing to support this
- The talks ultimately broke down in May 2022 due to reluctance from Ukraine's Western partners, hardening of the public mood in Ukraine, Ukraine's growing confidence in winning the war, and disagreements on the details
- This history serves as a reminder that Putin and Zelensky were willing to consider extraordinary compromises to end the war, and these ideas from the spring 2022 talks could yet prove useful in building a durable peace
Summaries
20 word summary
Russia and Ukraine negotiated a framework for settlement, including Ukraine's neutrality, EU membership, and security guarantees, before talks broke down.
45 word summary
In early 2022, Russia and Ukraine negotiated a framework for a potential settlement, including Ukraine's neutrality, EU membership, and security guarantees. Though talks broke down, this history shows both sides were willing to make significant concessions, which could inform future negotiations to end the war.
126 word summary
In the early days of the 2022 Russian invasion, intense diplomacy between Moscow and Kyiv led to the "Istanbul Communique" - a framework for a potential settlement. This proposed Ukraine becoming a permanently neutral, non-nuclear state, with guarantors obliged to aid Ukraine if attacked. Remarkably, it would have facilitated Ukraine's EU membership, with Russia's agreement. This represented a significant concession by Putin. However, the talks broke down in May 2022 due to factors like reluctance from Ukraine's Western partners, hardening public mood in Ukraine, and disagreements on the details. While a basic ceasefire proved elusive, the negotiators tried to deliver an overarching settlement. This history serves as a reminder that both sides were willing to consider extraordinary compromises, which could yet prove useful in future negotiations.
289 word summary
In the early days of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, intense diplomacy was underway between Moscow and Kyiv that could have resulted in a settlement just weeks after the war began. By late March 2022, the so-called Istanbul Communique had outlined a framework for a potential settlement, with Ukrainian and Russian negotiators making substantial progress toward an agreement.
The proposed treaty envisioned Ukraine becoming a permanently neutral, non-nuclear state, renouncing any intention to join military alliances or allow foreign military bases or troops on its soil. Potential guarantors, including the UN Security Council permanent members and several other countries, would be obliged to provide aid to restore Ukraine's security if it came under attack. Remarkably, the treaty would have also facilitated Ukraine's path to EU membership, with Russia agreeing to support this.
This framework represented a significant concession by Putin, who had earlier attempted to seize Kyiv and impose a puppet regime. However, the talks ultimately broke down in May 2022 due to several factors: reluctance from Ukraine's Western partners, the hardening of the public mood in Ukraine following the discovery of Russian atrocities, Ukraine's growing confidence in winning the war, and disagreements on the details of the agreement.
Ultimately, the negotiators tried to deliver an overarching settlement even as a basic ceasefire proved elusive. They put the cart of a postwar security order before the horse of ending the immediate conflict.
Today, when the prospects for negotiations appear dim, this history serves as a reminder that Putin and Zelensky were willing to consider extraordinary compromises to end the war. If and when they return to the negotiating table, they may find ideas from the spring 2022 talks that could yet prove useful in building a durable peace.
508 word summary
The Talks That Could Have Ended the War in Ukraine
In the early days of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, intense diplomacy was underway between Moscow and Kyiv that could have resulted in a settlement just weeks after the war began. By the end of March 2022, a series of in-person meetings and virtual engagements had produced the so-called Istanbul Communiqué, which described a framework for a potential settlement. Ukrainian and Russian negotiators then began working on the text of a treaty, making substantial progress toward an agreement.
The proposed treaty envisioned Ukraine becoming a permanently neutral, non-nuclear state. Ukraine would renounce any intention to join military alliances or allow foreign military bases or troops on its soil. The communiqué listed possible guarantors, including the permanent members of the UN Security Council (including Russia) along with Canada, Germany, Israel, Italy, Poland, and Turkey. If Ukraine came under attack and requested assistance, all guarantor states would be obliged to provide aid to restore Ukraine's security. Remarkably, the treaty would also have facilitated Ukraine's path to EU membership, with Russia agreeing to support this.
This framework represented an extraordinary concession by Putin, who just weeks earlier had attempted to seize Kyiv and impose a puppet regime. It appears he was willing to cut his losses if he could secure his core demand - that Ukraine renounce NATO aspirations and never host NATO forces. With his blitzkrieg failing, perhaps Putin calculated that this deal could stem the hemorrhaging of Russia's economy and restore the country's international reputation.
However, the talks ultimately broke down in May 2022. Several factors contributed to this:
1. Reluctance from Ukraine's Western partners: Washington and its allies were deeply skeptical about the prospects for the diplomatic track, as the communiqué sidestepped the question of territory and borders, and the parties remained far apart on other crucial issues. The West ramped up military aid to Kyiv and increased pressure on Russia instead.
2. Hardening of the public mood in Ukraine: The discovery of Russian atrocities in Bucha and Irpin outraged Ukrainians and made diplomacy with Moscow politically fraught for Zelensky.
3. Ukraine's growing confidence in winning the war: The Russian retreat from Kyiv and the prospect of more Western weapons changed the military balance, reducing Kyiv's incentive to compromise.
4. Disagreements on the details: While the parties made substantial progress, they remained divided on issues like the size and structure of Ukraine's military, the scope of security guarantees, and Russia's demands related to Ukraine's historical memory laws.
Ultimately, the negotiators tried to deliver an overarching settlement even as a basic ceasefire proved elusive. They put the cart of a postwar security order before the horse of ending the immediate conflict.
Today, when the prospects for negotiations appear dim, this history serves as a reminder that Putin and Zelensky were willing to consider extraordinary compromises to end the war. If and when they return to the negotiating table, they may find ideas from the spring 2022 talks that could yet prove useful in building a durable peace.