Summary Forget Taiwan, China Will Invade Siberia | by Clarus | Mar, 2024 | Medium clarus-tx.medium.com
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One Line
China is unlikely to invade Taiwan due to the difficulty of the operation, but may instead target Siberia for expansion due to easier access.
Slides
Slide Presentation (9 slides)
Key Points
- China is unlikely to invade Taiwan due to the difficulty of amphibious landings and China's lack of military experience in such complex operations
- China has not invested much in building additional landing craft, suggesting they may not be planning an invasion of Taiwan
- China's last major military conflict was the Sino-Vietnamese conflict in 1979, where they failed to achieve their operational goals
- China has observed Russia's failure in the Ukraine invasion, which may make them realize their military is unprepared for a complex operation like invading Taiwan
- Threats of invading Taiwan may be more for domestic political purposes rather than an actual plan of action
Summaries
18 word summary
China's unlikely to invade Taiwan due to difficulty. Siberia may be targeted for expansion due to easier access.
51 word summary
China's potential invasion of Taiwan is unlikely due to the difficulty of amphibious landings and lack of experience in complex military operations. The focus may shift to Siberia, with easier land access and Russia's declining population and military presence, making it a tempting target for China's expansion of territory and influence.
124 word summary
China's potential invasion of Taiwan has sparked fears, but the difficulty of amphibious landings makes it unlikely. China lacks experience in complex military operations, with its last war being in 1979. The failure of Russia in Ukraine also serves as a cautionary tale. Despite domestic support for Xi Jinping, the Chinese Communist Party may doubt the success of an invasion. This skepticism is reflected in the lack of investment in additional landing craft. Instead, China may have its sights set on Siberia, which offers easier land access. With Russia's declining population and military presence in the region, it could be a more tempting target for China. The focus on Siberia may overshadow concerns about Taiwan, as China seeks to expand its territory and influence.